Buying the Natural Gas ETF (UNG) - we love ETF's here!! - As the 21 is "about" to cross the 50 day MA
Trade well,
Trader D
Friday, May 29, 2009
U.S. Natural Gas
Buying the Natural Gas ETF (UNG) - we love ETF's here!! - As the 21 is "about" to cross the 50 day MA
Trade well,
Trader D
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
FROTH
Yes, the markets are up big today. Yes, everything is wonderful in the world. Yes, small cap pieces of... poo are surging higher.
step right up and buy, buy, buy, buy, buy :)
Trade well,
Trader D
step right up and buy, buy, buy, buy, buy :)
Trade well,
Trader D
Monday, May 25, 2009
Quote of the day
PAUL KRUGMAN
May 24, 2009
"California, it has long been claimed, is where the future happens first. But is that still true? If it is, God help America."
May 24, 2009
"California, it has long been claimed, is where the future happens first. But is that still true? If it is, God help America."
Friday, May 22, 2009
The only chart ...
Here it is folks....do we break out or down? The trend says up..the VIX says up...The indicators are showing weakness:
Trade well,
Trader D
Trade well,
Trader D
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Not good
Close Below 50-day EMA NYSE 125 Stocks NASDAQ 161 Stocks
Close Above 50-day EMA NYSE 18 Stocks NASDAQ 35 Stocks
Close Below 13-day EMA NYSE 391 Stocks NASDAQ 300 Stocks
Close Above 13-day EMA NYSE 61 Stocks NASDAQ 81 Stocks
Trade well,
Trader D
Close Above 50-day EMA NYSE 18 Stocks NASDAQ 35 Stocks
Close Below 13-day EMA NYSE 391 Stocks NASDAQ 300 Stocks
Close Above 13-day EMA NYSE 61 Stocks NASDAQ 81 Stocks
Trade well,
Trader D
Two opposing views
Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Surge 88% in Three Years
By Matt Miller and Eric Martin
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are at the start of a bull market that may spur an 88 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the next two or three years, Laszlo Birinyi said.
“We’re confident we are in a bull market,” Birinyi, the founder of Westport, Connecticut-based research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
The S&P 500 may jump to a record 1,700 as the economy rebounds from the worst recession since World War II, an increase from today’s close of 903.47, said Birinyi, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc. Signs the global contraction is easing have spurred a 34 percent rally by the index since it sank to a 12-year low in March.
Birinyi’s October 2007 warning that a recovery in banks would be snuffed out presaged an 82 percent plunge in the S&P 500 Financials Index through March 6 of this year. Still, he was early in predicting the end of the bear market. He said on Dec. 8, 2008, that the S&P 500 bottomed the prior month, before the measure lost another 23 percent.
The S&P 500 is down 42 percent from its October 2007 record of 1,565.15.
Birinyi said investors should avoid the smallest U.S. stocks and buy companies like billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which he called “a good trading stock.” He added that he owns shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
To contact the reporters on this story: Matt Miller in New York at mtmiller@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: May 20, 2009 17:08 EDT
Wall Street Journal: Was it a sucker's rally?
Andy Kessler May 12, 2009
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced an astounding 30% from its March 9 low of 6547. Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again?
Only a fool predicts the stock market, so here I go.
I'm not so sure. This sure smells to me like a sucker's rally. That's because there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise. Here are three explanations for the short-term upswing:
1) Armageddon is off the table. It has been clear for some time that the funds available from the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) were not going to be enough to shore up bank balance sheets laced with toxic assets.
On Feb. 10, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rolled out another, much hyped bank rescue plan. It was judged incomplete -- and the market sold off 382 points in disgust.
Citigroup stock flirted with $1 on March 9. Nationalizations seemed inevitable as bears had their day.
Still, the Treasury bought time by announcing on the same day as Mr. Geithner's underwhelming rescue plan that it would conduct "stress tests" of 19 large U.S. banks. It also implied, over time, that no bank would fail the test (which was more a negotiation than an audit). And when White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel clearly stated on April 19 that nationalization was "not the goal" of the administration, it became safe to own financial stocks again.
It doesn't matter if financial institution losses are $2 trillion or the pessimists' $3.6 trillion. "No more failures" is policy. While the U.S. government may end up owning maybe a third of the equity of Citi and Bank of America and a few others, none will be nationalized. And even though future bank profits will be held back by constant write downs of "legacy" assets (we don't call them toxic anymore), the bears have backed off and the market rallied -- Citi is now $4.
2) Zero yields. The Federal Reserve, by driving short-term rates to almost zero, has messed up asset allocation formulas. Money always seeks its highest risk-adjusted return. Thus in normal markets if bond yields rise they become more attractive than risky stocks, so money shifts. And vice versa. Well, have you looked at your bank statement lately?
Savings accounts pay a whopping 0.2% interest rate -- 20 basis points. Even seven-day commercial paper money-market funds are paying under 50 basis points. So money has shifted to stocks, some of it automatically, as bond returns are puny compared to potential stock returns. Meanwhile, both mutual funds and hedge funds that missed the market pop are playing catch-up -- rushing to buy stocks.
3) Bernanke's printing press. On March 18, the Federal Reserve announced it would purchase up to $300 billion of long-term bonds as well as $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Of all the Fed's moves, this "quantitative easing" gets money into the economy the fastest -- basically by cranking the handle of the printing press and flooding the market with dollars (in reality, with additional bank credit). Since these dollars are not going into home building, coal-fired electric plants or auto factories, they end up in the stock market.
A rising market means that banks are able to raise much-needed equity from private money funds instead of from the feds. And last Thursday, accompanying this flood of new money, came the reassuring results of the bank stress tests.
The next day Morgan Stanley raised $4 billion by selling stock at $24 in an oversubscribed deal. Wells Fargo also raised $8.6 billion that day by selling stock at $22 a share, up from $8 two months ago. And Bank of America registered 1.25 billion shares to sell this week. Citi is next. It's almost as if someone engineered a stock-market rally to entice private investors to fund the banks rather than taxpayers.
Can you see why I believe this is a sucker's rally?
The stock market still has big hurdles to clear. You can have a jobless recovery, but you can't have a profitless recovery. Consider: Earnings are subpar, Treasury's last auction was a bust because of weak demand, the dollar is suspect, the stimulus is pork, the latest budget projects a $1.84 trillion deficit, the administration is berating investment firms and hedge funds saying "I don't stand with them," California is dead broke, health care may be nationalized, cap and trade will bump electric bills by 30% . . . Shall I go on?
Until these issues are resolved, I don't see the stock market going much higher. I'm not disagreeing with the Fed's policies -- but I won't buy into a rising stock market based on them. I'm bullish when I see productivity driving wealth.
For now, the market appears dependent on a hand cranking out dollars to help fund banks. I'd rather see rising expectations for corporate profits.
By Matt Miller and Eric Martin
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are at the start of a bull market that may spur an 88 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the next two or three years, Laszlo Birinyi said.
“We’re confident we are in a bull market,” Birinyi, the founder of Westport, Connecticut-based research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
The S&P 500 may jump to a record 1,700 as the economy rebounds from the worst recession since World War II, an increase from today’s close of 903.47, said Birinyi, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc. Signs the global contraction is easing have spurred a 34 percent rally by the index since it sank to a 12-year low in March.
Birinyi’s October 2007 warning that a recovery in banks would be snuffed out presaged an 82 percent plunge in the S&P 500 Financials Index through March 6 of this year. Still, he was early in predicting the end of the bear market. He said on Dec. 8, 2008, that the S&P 500 bottomed the prior month, before the measure lost another 23 percent.
The S&P 500 is down 42 percent from its October 2007 record of 1,565.15.
Birinyi said investors should avoid the smallest U.S. stocks and buy companies like billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which he called “a good trading stock.” He added that he owns shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
To contact the reporters on this story: Matt Miller in New York at mtmiller@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: May 20, 2009 17:08 EDT
Wall Street Journal: Was it a sucker's rally?
Andy Kessler May 12, 2009
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced an astounding 30% from its March 9 low of 6547. Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again?
Only a fool predicts the stock market, so here I go.
I'm not so sure. This sure smells to me like a sucker's rally. That's because there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise. Here are three explanations for the short-term upswing:
1) Armageddon is off the table. It has been clear for some time that the funds available from the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) were not going to be enough to shore up bank balance sheets laced with toxic assets.
On Feb. 10, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rolled out another, much hyped bank rescue plan. It was judged incomplete -- and the market sold off 382 points in disgust.
Citigroup stock flirted with $1 on March 9. Nationalizations seemed inevitable as bears had their day.
Still, the Treasury bought time by announcing on the same day as Mr. Geithner's underwhelming rescue plan that it would conduct "stress tests" of 19 large U.S. banks. It also implied, over time, that no bank would fail the test (which was more a negotiation than an audit). And when White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel clearly stated on April 19 that nationalization was "not the goal" of the administration, it became safe to own financial stocks again.
It doesn't matter if financial institution losses are $2 trillion or the pessimists' $3.6 trillion. "No more failures" is policy. While the U.S. government may end up owning maybe a third of the equity of Citi and Bank of America and a few others, none will be nationalized. And even though future bank profits will be held back by constant write downs of "legacy" assets (we don't call them toxic anymore), the bears have backed off and the market rallied -- Citi is now $4.
2) Zero yields. The Federal Reserve, by driving short-term rates to almost zero, has messed up asset allocation formulas. Money always seeks its highest risk-adjusted return. Thus in normal markets if bond yields rise they become more attractive than risky stocks, so money shifts. And vice versa. Well, have you looked at your bank statement lately?
Savings accounts pay a whopping 0.2% interest rate -- 20 basis points. Even seven-day commercial paper money-market funds are paying under 50 basis points. So money has shifted to stocks, some of it automatically, as bond returns are puny compared to potential stock returns. Meanwhile, both mutual funds and hedge funds that missed the market pop are playing catch-up -- rushing to buy stocks.
3) Bernanke's printing press. On March 18, the Federal Reserve announced it would purchase up to $300 billion of long-term bonds as well as $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Of all the Fed's moves, this "quantitative easing" gets money into the economy the fastest -- basically by cranking the handle of the printing press and flooding the market with dollars (in reality, with additional bank credit). Since these dollars are not going into home building, coal-fired electric plants or auto factories, they end up in the stock market.
A rising market means that banks are able to raise much-needed equity from private money funds instead of from the feds. And last Thursday, accompanying this flood of new money, came the reassuring results of the bank stress tests.
The next day Morgan Stanley raised $4 billion by selling stock at $24 in an oversubscribed deal. Wells Fargo also raised $8.6 billion that day by selling stock at $22 a share, up from $8 two months ago. And Bank of America registered 1.25 billion shares to sell this week. Citi is next. It's almost as if someone engineered a stock-market rally to entice private investors to fund the banks rather than taxpayers.
Can you see why I believe this is a sucker's rally?
The stock market still has big hurdles to clear. You can have a jobless recovery, but you can't have a profitless recovery. Consider: Earnings are subpar, Treasury's last auction was a bust because of weak demand, the dollar is suspect, the stimulus is pork, the latest budget projects a $1.84 trillion deficit, the administration is berating investment firms and hedge funds saying "I don't stand with them," California is dead broke, health care may be nationalized, cap and trade will bump electric bills by 30% . . . Shall I go on?
Until these issues are resolved, I don't see the stock market going much higher. I'm not disagreeing with the Fed's policies -- but I won't buy into a rising stock market based on them. I'm bullish when I see productivity driving wealth.
For now, the market appears dependent on a hand cranking out dollars to help fund banks. I'd rather see rising expectations for corporate profits.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Black Gold, Texas Tea
Come and listen to a story about a man named Jed A poor mountaineer, barely kept his family fed, Then one day he was shootin at some food, And up through the ground came a bubblin crude. ....
Trade well,
Trade well,
Trader D
Monday, May 18, 2009
New buys
In no particular order:
INTC, AAPL, QCOM, SPLS, STX, CHKP, KLAC, ADSK, CHRW, CTAS, DD, DHR, CRM, HD, BXP, YUM, ZMH, PX, JBL, EFX, CTAS, GPC, USB, SCHW, BC, CAKE, DBRN, RGEN, DRIV
Trade well,
Trader D
INTC, AAPL, QCOM, SPLS, STX, CHKP, KLAC, ADSK, CHRW, CTAS, DD, DHR, CRM, HD, BXP, YUM, ZMH, PX, JBL, EFX, CTAS, GPC, USB, SCHW, BC, CAKE, DBRN, RGEN, DRIV
Trade well,
Trader D
Great call on the QQQQ
On Friday we posted that the Q's looked VERY bullish. What was the chart showing that was not reflected in the market?? The chart showed several indicators but did it show a rally coming? What made us so sure?
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Check out our website at http://www.intothemarkets.com/ to take advantage of the 20% discount running through the end of May.
Trade well,
Trader D
Friday, May 15, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Gotta go shopping
We like the chart of Bed, Bath, & Beyond (BBBY), the stock has pulled back to support and as the market continues to hold up here (thank god we had the FAZ today!) we see this stock moving higher..
Trade well,
trader D
Friday, May 8, 2009
Stress me out
The stress tests are out and the financials are looking positive once again this Friday morning. Here at ITM we are buying a SMALL position of FAZ (Financial 3X short ETF) as a hedge against our longs.
Yes, we are trading against an extreme uptrend but this position is specifically being placed as a hedge now that the "news" is out.
Trade well,
Trader D
Yes, we are trading against an extreme uptrend but this position is specifically being placed as a hedge now that the "news" is out.
Trade well,
Trader D
Thursday, May 7, 2009
200 Day Moving Average
Hello Traders,
The 200 day exponentail moving aveage for the DOW comes in aroun 8800 - just below prior resistance.
Will we get there?
FAZ, time to come out of the basement as bears TRY to get the market to give them some love to the downside!
Happy Trading
Trader B
The 200 day exponentail moving aveage for the DOW comes in aroun 8800 - just below prior resistance.
Will we get there?
FAZ, time to come out of the basement as bears TRY to get the market to give them some love to the downside!
Happy Trading
Trader B
An apple a day
K12(LRN) comes out with earnings tomorrow morning. With 30% of shares short and over 23% short ratio...this stock could go to the head of the class in no time.
Trade well,
Trader D
Trade well,
Trader D
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
FSLR Update
We are taking First Solar (FSLR) off the table since it hit our price target of $200 we set on april 9th for a 41% gain.
Trade well,
Trader D
Trade well,
Trader D
Final Update - UNTD
Congrats to all those who held on! "That's what i'm talkin' about"
Trade well,
Trader D
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Can't go down, must go up?
Hello Traders,
Where are the sellers and what will get them to come out?
We were just warned by Bernanke that job losses will increase, but the pace has slowed. Is a bad job numbers built in?
If you remember the past few job numbers, we rallied on worse than expected numbers. Now what, a better than expected and we break?
Earnings are, well earnings - all over the place, but the stock market keeps rolling along.
At some point it will be overbought. Until then, if you go with the short term bullish trend, make sure you are buying dips or breakouts as your risk to reward is much better.
Happy Trading,
Trader B
Where are the sellers and what will get them to come out?
We were just warned by Bernanke that job losses will increase, but the pace has slowed. Is a bad job numbers built in?
If you remember the past few job numbers, we rallied on worse than expected numbers. Now what, a better than expected and we break?
Earnings are, well earnings - all over the place, but the stock market keeps rolling along.
At some point it will be overbought. Until then, if you go with the short term bullish trend, make sure you are buying dips or breakouts as your risk to reward is much better.
Happy Trading,
Trader B
UNTD Update
What to do?? We are up over 20% since mentioning UNTD last week. Very good profits in a short amount of time and earnings are scheduled to be released tonight.
Your options are:
-Sell the position and admire yourself for a great trade
-Sell half and play it conservatively
-keep it all and let it ride
Trade well,
Trader D
Your options are:
-Sell the position and admire yourself for a great trade
-Sell half and play it conservatively
-keep it all and let it ride
Trade well,
Trader D
Monday, May 4, 2009
Next?
Hello Traders,
Next? Meaning what next for the markets?
Strength showed up today as many stocks continued their surge.
APPL had a nice surge after consolidating.
WFMI did the same
A previous leader, HD had trouble and seems to not like being above 27. If we continue to surge, it should be dragged up as well.
Dow has resistance and the 200 dma around 90 - clear sailing ahead?
Look out for the economic calendar - unemployment on the horizon.
Are we due for a better than expected report to fuel the rally?
Remember your risk to reward and your overall trading plan - you must manage the trade from entry to exit.
Happy Trading
Trader B
Next? Meaning what next for the markets?
Strength showed up today as many stocks continued their surge.
APPL had a nice surge after consolidating.
WFMI did the same
A previous leader, HD had trouble and seems to not like being above 27. If we continue to surge, it should be dragged up as well.
Dow has resistance and the 200 dma around 90 - clear sailing ahead?
Look out for the economic calendar - unemployment on the horizon.
Are we due for a better than expected report to fuel the rally?
Remember your risk to reward and your overall trading plan - you must manage the trade from entry to exit.
Happy Trading
Trader B
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